Race intensity
Weighted 0–100 index combining capital allocation speed, cluster compute activations, benchmark leap velocity, and regulatory interventions.
Capability, capital and infrastructure are moving in the same direction. The gap between research and deployment is compressing.
Superintelligence countdown
Synthesized from Metaculus AGI/ASI Aggregate (median ~May 2029), Epoch AI Frontier Scaling Trajectories, and prediction market consensus (Kalshi & Manifold). Probability window spans from 2027 (25th percentile) to 2031 (75th percentile).
Capability trajectory
Points represent pivotal shifts: architecture breakthroughs, 100k+ GPU cluster activations, and autonomous agent cyber discoveries. Hover over any node to inspect details.
Annualised progression rate across frontier reasoning (Artificial Analysis intelligence index, GPQA, Math 500) over the past 12 months.
Multi-turn task success multiple without human intervention across SWE-bench Verified, OSWorld, and autonomous developer terminal sandboxes.
Surge in test-time compute FLOPs required per answer. Models run hundreds of chain-of-thought search rollouts, stressing real-time GPU cluster occupancy.
30% Reasoning & Benchmarks · 25% Compute & Power · 15% Distribution · 15% Capital · 15% Talent Density. Calibrated against live Artificial Analysis evaluation leaderboards.
Global hyperscaler cap-ex and sovereign cluster infrastructure committed through 2026.
Source: Hyperscaler Financial DisclosuresOrganisations training models beyond 10^26 training FLOPs under daily observation.
Source: Primary Lab Technical Disclosures8 Capability Breakthroughs, 6 Infrastructure Deals, 4 Capital Allocations, 4 Distribution Moves, 4 Constraints & Regulatory Gates.
Stalled: Sub-linear benchmark growth and compute deficit.
Plateau: Scaling laws saturate without architecture change.
Cooling down: Cap-ex slowdown or regulatory pauses.
Acceleration: Test-time search scaling and gigawatt cluster additions.
Breakthrough: Autonomous self-improving agents.